Reasons for Lodging Industry Optimism

“Lemons from lemonade" may be a cliché, but it appears to be the mindset of many lodging industry entrepreneurs and developers, especially those at The Lodging Conference held last month in Phoenix. While industry numbers are still lousy (Smith Travel Research says RevPAR is down 18 percent through August), many speakers and a lot of attendees talked as though recovery is around the corner and we all had better be ready for it.

There are several reasons for this perhaps misplaced optimism. Everyone goes to a conference selling something—their brand, their management services, themselves—and no one is (or should) be more upbeat than a peddler. Also, many people (me included) are sick and tired of all the bad news and wish we could get back to the good times. And, finally and, most importantly, business people—and developers especially—don't know how to be anything but optimistic. To them, the next deal will always be the best one.

This attitude was reflected at the conference in a number of announcements made by a variety of companies of new deals, new funds and new directions. I spoke to scores of people and nearly everyone had a plan for the recovery. Here are some snippets of news and conversation that support the notion of widespread optimism among industry leaders:

• Everyone concedes the crisis in the CMBS and general credit markets will create lots of opportunities for well-positioned companies to either buy, manage or brand the hundreds or more likely, thousands of hotels that will come on the market in the next few years. Concord Hospitality unveiled a $300-million private equity fund it's forming to buy and reposition a big chunk of those properties. And brand companies like Starwood and Choice think they'll have opportunities to convert many of these properties once they're sold, renovated, repositioned and looking for a new home.

• International growth is another strategy for some brands and companies. Wayne Williams of La Quinta said while U.S. growth will be somewhat constricted in the next few years, the chain is very aggressive in Latin America, with deals in place or on the front burner in six countries.

"We're able to get these deals done because we're working with a limited number of recession-proof families who essentially control the economies in those countries and can still make development happen," said Williams.

• The future of the luxury hotel market was a hot topic for many at the conference. The consensus seemed to be luxury lodging will weather the storm, but the segment may look different once the economy turns upward. Some suggest the well-heeled guest will seek properties with experiential offerings rather than those with lavish facilities and amenities. The lingering AIG effect has also put a damper on business at large luxury properties. In the future, some say, brands will be less important in this segment and smaller independent boutique properties will take the place of the big-box luxury group houses.

Despite the optimism on display in Phoenix, the industry still faces major issues. Yet it's refreshing to see executives believing tomorrow will be better than today and preparing themselves and their companies for the turnaround. It can't happen soon enough for me or anyone connected to the lodging industry.


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