Both the consumer press and the hotel press have reported unusually good news in recent weeks. At the beginning of the month, the big national story was the jump in new jobs (162,000) added to the economy in March. And while there is debate on the composition and value of those jobs, it should be clear to all that adding jobs is always better for the economy than losing them. The result has been cautious buoyancy in consumer sentiment. People feel better when economic news is positive, often leading to more spending, which leads to more jobs, etc. Of course, that kind of trend is a positive harbinger for travel in general and the hotel industry in particular.

Similarly, recent news releases from Smith Travel Research have given hoteliers a spring in their steps that no one has seen since 2008. STR reported hopeful upswings in both occupancy (up six percent) and RevPAR (up 4.2 percent) for the week of March 21. Even average rate, which nosedived in late 2008 and hasn't recovered much since, was only down 1.6 percent that week. The news was especially good for the hard-hit luxury hotel segment, which posted a double-digit (10.7 percent) gain in occupancy and a significant upturn (7.1 percent) in RevPAR. The results from the week reflect an improving trend that started in February and probably will continue in the coming weeks and months. And, of course, the summer travel season will be an important benchmark to the industry's recovery.

You can't deny things are looking up for the hotel industry. To underscore that point, earlier this month STR revised its forecast for the rest of this year and next. The number crunchers from Tennessee upgraded their outlook for all three performance measures: Occupancies will increase about two percent this year, rates will be down a little more than two percent and RevPAR will essentially be flat.

PKF Hospitality Research also sounded a very optimistic note last month, forecasting RevPARs will soar by double-digit percentages once we make it to 2012. Should the firm's projections of a 10.5-percent boost in RevPAR materialize in 2012, it will mark the first time the industry has posted double-digit RevPAR hikes since the inflationary years of the late 1970s and early '80s.

Yet, we need to rein-in our enthusiasm a tad. Yes, business (and the economy) are getting better, but only slowly and not evenly across all segments, markets and locales. And there's no guarantee some event or trend could trigger another downturn in the economy (the dreaded double dip) that would likewise mar the lodging industry's march toward recovery. Even STR President Mark Lomanno was a little cautious in announcing the firm's upgraded forecast. While STR believes the recovery is beginning to pick up in pace, he also thinks it will begin to slow somewhat in 2011.

It's prudent to rejoice at improvements in business, locally, nationally and globally, but don't get carried away thinking good times are once again right around the corner. I suspect we'll see a lot more pain before life returns to what we remember as normal, if that ever happens at all.