We've been to the edge of the abyss but haven't fallen in, a sentiment that's true for both the national economy and the health of the hotel industry. When lodging leaders convened in San Diego in January for the ALIS conference, the mood was one of impending doom: What new crisis is ahead, and will it be the one that triggers a total economic meltdown? No one knew the answers, and everyone was scared.

By contrast, the New York University International Hospitality Investment Conference, held earlier this month in New York City, had a general atmosphere of hope and promise. To be sure, no one says good times are back or even around the corner, but the sentiment of most speakers, pundits and attendees was that the industry's positive signs finally outweigh the negative ones. First the bad news:

• According to Smith Travel Research data, hotel performance still stinks. Through April, RevPAR was down 18.2 percent versus last year, and it's worse as you climb the segment ladder. The luxury business has been in freefall all year, with RevPAR declines approaching 30 percent.

• While some speakers disagreed, even self-proclaimed optimist Mit Shah of Noble Investment Group said, "capital is not loosening at all." And without capital, the industry eventually stagnates and chokes.

• With lodging demand likely to remain soft for awhile, and refinancing debt scarce to non-existent, a rash of foreclosures and give-backs to lenders is probably in the offing this year and next.

Enough gloom; here's the good news to emerge from NYU:

• Without being very specific, more than one brand executive and hotel owner said they've seen in recent weeks anecdotal evidence that business is improving. Many of them, such as Steve Joyce of Choice Hotels, see a brighter forecast for summer, especially for the lower-rated chains in his portfolio.

• As HVS president and founder and Lodging Hospitality columnist Steve Rushmore said, the current hotel environment is a "huge buying opportunity" for anyone with cash and access to debt. Many speakers echoed Gary Mendell of HEI Hotels, who believes "an avalanche of hotel transactions is coming."

• Strategic Hotels CEO Laurence Geller, an inveterate curmudgeon, was perhaps the most bullish. He believes because his firm and many other hotel companies have instituted "systemic organizational changes," mostly through labor reductions, hotel operating margins will rise precipitously once demand begins to return.

"We've cut perhaps 15 to 20 percent of labor, and a quarter to a third of that won't ever come back, so our margins will be higher," he said. "We all need to muddle through, and while it may take longer than it did in previous industry downturns, the halcyon days for this industry are just ahead. We can wring our hands or we can work for tomorrow. I choose the latter."