Don’t expect commercial real estate to begin to rebound until the second half of 2010, according to a new forecast from Jones Lang LaSalle. In addition, says JLL, the latter part of next year will also “mark the start of a new lodging cycle, a period when the investment community will start to transition from the year of realization (2009) to the year of increasing opportunities.”

Most hopefully, the forecast calls for a rise in the volume of hotel transactions next year, even though the deal environment will be hampered by a “continued scarcity of liquidity, particularly in the debt markets.”

The overall commercial real estate market seems to be poised for a quicker rebound than the lodging sector. JLL says the volume of transactions will increase 30 to 50 percent next year. Also, pricing will begin to stabilize, and some limited cap rate compression will occur in top-tier coastal markets like Washington, New York and San Francisco.

However, problems remain, namely the $1.4 trillion in commercial mortgages held by U.S. banks that come due between next year and 2012. JLL believes commercial real estate loan delinquencies will top 10 percent by the second quarter of 2010. One ray of hope may be a rebirth of the nearly dormant CMBS market. JLL cited Goldman Sach’s recent $400-million CMBS issue as a possible restart of the market. The issuance was the first since the middle of 2008.