A Glum Sentiment

Except for a flat reading in August, the Lodging Executives Sentiment Index (LESI) for the last five periods indicates a lack of economic expansion. The 34.6 reading for the current period is down from 41.3 last period and 69.8 percent a year ago. A reading above 50 suggests expansion, while a reading below 50 points to a decline. The distance from 50 indicates the strength of expansion or decline.

The Present Situation Index registered a steep decline, from last period's 28.3 and 77.6 a year ago to 19.2 this period — the fourth registered decline since April.

The Future Expectations Index reading of 50.0 suggests business conditions are at a standstill. Last period's reading of 54.3 indicated slight improvement for the coming 12 months. Last year, the index was a bullish 62.1 percent.

Nearly 12 percent of respondents felt current business conditions were good, while 15.4 percent said they were normal. About 73 percent described conditions as bad. Last period, 8.7 percent said conditions were good; 39.1 percent said normal; and 52.2 percent said bad. Nearly 35 percent thought business conditions would improve in the next 12 months, slightly better than last period's 26.1 percent. Almost 31 percent felt business conditions would stay the same, compared to 56.5 percent last period. About 35 percent indicated business conditions would be worse 12 months from now against 17.4 percent last period.

Executives expect a significant decrease in 12-month rooms reservations compared to the last 12 months. The Reservations Expectations Index reads 34.6 against 47.8 last period. A year ago, the index read 67.2. Almost 23 percent expected rooms reservations to increase in the next 12 months compared to 30.4 percent last period. And 23 percent felt rooms reservations would stay the same compared to 34.8 percent last period. Nearly 54 percent predicted rooms reservations would decrease in the next 12 months compared to 34.8 percent last period.

The Lodging Employment Index fell to 40.0, from last period's reading of 43.2 and 69.6 last year at this time. About 24 percent, versus 18.2 last period, expected to add non-management employees over the next 12 months, with 32 percent expecting to maintain the status quo, compared to 50 percent last period. Roughly 44 percent were going to layoff non-management employees versus 31.8 percent last period. During the same period last year, 42.8 percent were going to add non-management employees; 53.6 percent felt that they would keep the number the same; and only 3.6 percent indicated a reduction in the number of non-management employees.

The LESI, created by the University of New Hampshire's Hospitality Management Department, is a leading economic indicator based on opinions of lodging executives. The index uses the same methodology as is used for the Institute for Supply Management's Index. The survey results mimic the ISM report creating an index for the composite — called the LESI, the Present Situation Index, the Future Expectations Index, and the Lodging Employment Index.


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