Lessons From the Crisis
This ongoing financial crisis has taken its toll across a wide range of industries, and the hotel industry has been no exception. But for hotel owners and developers, the prospect of challenging economic circumstances, however daunting, also presents some valuable opportunities. There are important lessons to be learned from the current crisis, and those hoteliers who are best able to assimilate those lessons into their day-to-day operations will be in the best position to remain competitive when the economy recovers.
What goes up must come down. Even the most level-headed developers can lose focus and perspective during periods of prosperity. The current state of the economy is a not-so-subtle reminder of some very basic truths; foremost among them is the fact that real estate doesn’t appreciate at a crazy pace indefinitely. At some point, there will be a correction, and savvy industry professionals will be prepared for that certainty.
Best-case scenarios are a recipe for disaster. Experienced developers understand that you can’t develop a project that only works when calculations are put together based on sunny assumptions. Recessionary cycles have always been a part of the economy, and using overly optimistic numbers to underwrite a deal is literally risky business. Leveraging a project to that optimum point is foolish, and the events of the past year and a half have reinforced the lesson that deals and operational models predicated upon best-case scenarios have the greatest potential to lead to worst-case outcomes.
Don’t ignore the warning signs. In any business, wishful thinking is dangerous. In an industry that can be particularly sensitive to economic ebbs and flows, a lack of awareness can spell trouble. While no one can reliably predict the future, neglecting key indicators and making wishful assumptions instead of adopting a practical, strategic and evidence-based approach is a bad idea.
The bigger the weight gain, the more painful the diet. Avoid falling into the trap of failing to make those tough strategic decisions until it is absolutely necessary. Extraneous staff with unclear or overlapping responsibilities can contribute to a business model that is operating at less than peak efficiency. The industry experienced this phenomenon to a certain extent after the national trauma of 9/11. Revenue hides a lot of sins, and it is vitally important to be as efficient and operationally sound as possible during boom times so when things do take a turn for the worse, fewer drastic changes need to be made. Smart staffing practices at the operational level and prudent spending decisions at the corporate level are strategies that shouldn’t be put in place only when things get tough.
Wear and tear is a constant. Remember that necessary maintenance and upkeep will always be a part of the equation for owners and operators. The middle of a negative economic cycle is actually a better time to repair or upgrade infrastructure, as bargaining power is better and the price of materials and services is generally more competitive. The foresight to maintain enough of a financial reserve to be able to make necessary upgrades is another important lesson that some have learned the hard way during the recent slowdown.
Being conservative is not so bad. Missing an opportunity once in awhile can be frustrating, but when broader economic circumstances take a turn for the worse, that cautious, conservative approach can pay off—literally. Owners and developers who don’t find themselves stuck with over-leveraged assets are better able to maintain good equity numbers and are much more likely to avoid a liquidity crisis.
Don’t underestimate the importance of people. Perhaps the most important lesson of all is the most intuitive: surround yourself with good people. Assemble a team of trusted and experienced professionals you can rely on to come through during challenging times. Don’t treat employees like a commodity, but rather as participants in a team endeavor. Innovative solutions and important insights aren’t exclusive to upper management; great ideas can come from anywhere.
In the final analysis, today’s crisis reminds us once again that hotel developers, owners and operators with the best support network of talented, reliable and experienced employees will be better positioned to navigate their way successfully through periods of economic uncertainty.
Robert Habeeb is president of First Hospitality Group, Inc., a Chicago-based owner, developer and manager of hotels. He can be reached at rhabeeb@fhginc.com or 847-299-9040.
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© 2012 Penton Media Inc.
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