Lodging Executives Sentiment Stumbles

The LESI (Lodging Executives Sentiment Index) of 45.5 indicates a slower economic expansion than last period's 51.7, which indicated very slight expansion. Last year's reading for the same period was 69.6. An index reading greater than 50 indicates the lodging industry is generally expanding; a reading below 50 suggests a general decline. The distance from 50 indicates the strength of the decline or expansion.

The Present Situation Index registers a dip to 36.4 this period against last period's reading of 46.6 and 85.7 during the same period a year ago. The Future Expectations Index reading of 54.5 indicates a decrease in business activity from last period's 56.9. Last year's reading of 53.6 was slightly above the expansion indicator of 50.

Fourteen percent of respondents indicated current business conditions were “good” against 8.3 percent last period, with 45.5 percent indicating current conditions were “normal” against 58.3 percent last period. Forty-one percent of the executives responding to the survey indicated current business conditions were “bad” compared to 33.3 percent last period. Just 27.3 percent of responding lodging executives thought “…business conditions will be better in the next 12 months,” significantly lower than last period's 41.7 percent. Though 54.5 percent feel business conditions will be “the same” against 41.7 percent last period. Nearly 20 percent of the lodging executives indicated business conditions would be worse 12 months from now, while 24 percent indicated worsening conditions last period.

The Reservations Expectation Index, which reflects expectations regarding the volume of rooms reservations, saw a slight increase from last period — from 50.0 to 52.3. Thirty-two percent of the executives expect rooms reservations to increase in the next 12 months compared to 41.7 percent last period. More than 40 percent believe rooms reservations will stay the same compared to 33.3 percent last period, and 27.3 percent indicated rooms reservations would decrease in the next 12 months compared to 25 percent last period.

The Lodging Employment Index declined to 45.2 versus last period's reading of 54.4 and 68.5 last year at this time. Nineteen percent of the lodging executives, versus 33.3 percent last period, said they expect to add non-management employees over the next 12 months with 52.4 percent expecting to keep the total number of non-management employees the same. This compares to 45.5 percent last period. Twenty-nine percent of the executives expect to lay off non-management employees versus 29.2 percent last period.

The LESI, based on opinions of lodging executives, was developed by The University of New Hampshire's Hospitality Management Department.


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