Playing the Law of Averages

My first day in sales at the Waldorf-Astoria, the director of sales told me I could book the same number of room nights as the hotel's number one sales person within six months. A week earlier, I had been a 22-year-old room clerk. Now, I was supposed to believe I could match the productivity of a man with 15 years of sales experience, a man who had outsold the rest of the staff for three years running and, to top it off, was 6'5” with matinee-idol looks.

Seeing my incredulous expression, my boss added, “Of course, because you're young, untrained, inexperienced and — let's face it — a below-average salesperson, you'll have to make three times the number of calls he makes. Even so, you can book as much business as he does if you make three or, in your case, four times the number of calls.”

What he said was true: Calling 80 people a week should generate four times as many leads as only calling 20.

Keep score. Keep track of how many prospecting calls you make and how many good leads with appointments you get in a month's time. Then calculate the average number of calls it takes to get one appointment.

Let's say it takes seven calls to get one appointment. You don't have to be a math whiz to figure making 21 calls per day should produce, on average, three times the number of appointments.

Love rejection. I once read about a guy who gave prospects a sincere thank you and a smile when rejected because he knew each rejection moved him closer to success. Baseball players know if they strike out seven out of 10 times, they'll be among the best hitters in the league. Just as hitters improve their averages with coaching and practice, we can improve our ratios with training and practice.

At times your ratio of success might decrease to, say, one in 12. But the probability of success increases with every rejection. I remember a day when I received 14 straight rejections. I wasn't discouraged because I knew the next day would be great — thanks to the law of averages.


Tom McCarthy, CHME, CHA, spent half his career with Hilton and Marriott in sales, advertising and public relations and half in his own training and consulting business, Hotel Professional Education and Consulting of Falls Church, VA. He is a past president of Hospitality Sales & Marketing Association International (HSMAI) and a member of the HSMAI Hall of Fame. Reach him at ttmccarthy@cox.net or 703-931-0757.


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