AAA forecasts 42.5 million Americans will travel 50 or more miles during Thanksgiving weekend, a 4% increase from a year ago, and the first significant holiday travel increase of the year. But will those travelers be staying in hotels or with grandma?

Tim Hart, Travelclick

Tim Hart, executive vice president of business intelligence for Travelclick, says according to data from the hotel ecommerce company, many of those additional travelers won’t be staying in hotels, but those that do will be paying a higher rate.

“It’s obviously a very transient heavy period for these days,” Hart says of the long weekend. “Occupancy is lagging a little and looks like last year, but ADR is improving. (Thanksgiving) isn’t really a huge hotel weekend.”

Travelclick reports committed occupancy is up 0.3% from a year ago and average daily rate is up 4.7%. Gateway cities like San Francisco (up 11.4%), Honolulu (11.4%) and Seattle (9.4%) are leading the way on rate gains.

“Driving AAA’s projected increase in the number of Thanksgiving travelers is pent-up demand from Americans who may have foregone holiday travel the last three years,” Bill Sutherland, vice president, AAA Travel Services, said in a release. “As consumers weigh the fear of economic uncertainty and the desire to create lasting family memories this holiday, more Americans are expected to choose family and friends over frugality.”

Auto and air travel will be up, says AAA, and although hotel occupancy may not be, AAA projects 6% higher rates from AAA Three Diamond or mid-range lodgings ($145 a night compared to $136 a year ago). Two Diamond properties will see a 7% increase in rate. Sixty percent of intending travelers surveyed by AAA say the economy has no impact on their travel plans or things have improved for them.

Contrary to AAA’s forecast, a recent Maritz Poll projects a significant decline in holiday travel this year, although the survey covered the holidays from this weekend through New Year’s. Only 21% of Americans said they planned to travel this holiday season, compared to 28% a year ago. Only 11% indicated they planned to travel for Thanksgiving,

“This year’s poll findings indicate that the pressures of continued financial concerns are causing people to re-evaluate travel plans,” Rick Garlick, senior director of consulting and strategic implementation for Maritz Research’s Hospitality Research Group, said in a release.

Of those not planning to travel, 31% said finances played a part in the decision and 20% said finances were a “major reason” for not traveling, according to the Maritz poll.

Similar to AAA and Travelclick, Maritz’s poll indicated those 21% planning to travel expected to pay more per consumer ($1227.36 this year compared to $1202.84 last year).

Weather is always the wildcard with winter holiday travel and AccuWeather is reporting heavy rain could cause flooding and grounded flights this weekend from Arkansas to Ohio to Massachusetts.

So weather permitting, it appears there may or may not be more travelers on the road this Thanksgiving weekend, but either way, there won’t be many more staying the night in a hotel. But those who do will be paying a higher rate.