My first column of the year is usually easy to write. Readers expect predictions for the new year, so I throw out a few vague forecasts (e.g., a good year for luxury hotels), a couple of left-field notions (brands x and y will merge) and one or two non-hotel predictions (The Cleveland Indians will win the World Series). It's not so simple this year, given the turmoil both in the economy and the lodging industry. That said, here are a few thoughts on what the hotel business may see in 2009:

Nobody knows. Nearly every news report or expert analysis seems to offer a different opinion on the health of the business. In late December, I read a report on the surprisingly strong performance of hotel stocks in 2008. A couple of hours later, an AP story discussed how hotel shares suffered last year due to the economy and the “staycation” trend. Lack of clarity makes everyone nervous.

Striving for positive news. Hotel investors and owners are hungry for any glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel. Earlier this month, a vaguely worded statement from Starwood Hotels that vulture investor Sam Zell may increase his stake in the company spurred its stock to jump more than 16 percent in one day. I think the economy and the hotel industry will react swiftly and decisively once we see concrete signs that the economy has turned the corner.

Consolidation a near certainty. The year will undoubtedly see a number of mergers and acquisitions among both small and large hotel companies. As noted above, Starwood may be in play. It could also be a year of change at Hilton, Wyndham and/or IHG, and even venerable hotel companies like Marriott could come under pressure. The hotel landscape will be very different by early 2010.

Value vs. rate cutting. No matter what you call it, 2009 will be a year of aggressive, sometimes foolhardy rate cutting in the hotel industry. Smart operators will disguise lower rates through value offers, i.e., stay two nights, get the third for free, but nearly everyone will need to be aggressive in their marketing and pricing strategies.

The bold forge ahead. If you're an owner or developer who already has plans (and, more importantly, financing) in place for a renovation project or to build a new property, it's probably a good idea to proceed with your plans. A fresh new product will put you in a strong position once the travel economy turns upward again.

The new Lodging Hospitality. As you can tell, you're reading a somewhat different Lodging Hospitality than you received last month. This is the result of an extensive project designed to create a product that is more readable and easier for you to use. What hasn't changed is our commitment to provide content that is provocative, informative and, most of all, helpful to you in owning, developing or operating hotel properties.

Kudos go to Penton Real Estate Group Art Director John Herr and LH's Art Director Jeff Greene for their collaboration on this exciting redesign. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the new look and ways we can continue to improve our product. Send me a note or give me a call.