PHOENIX — The full brunt of the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) crisis has yet to strike the struggling hotel industry. The warning from Joel Ross, principal of New York-based Citadel Realty Advisors, came Wednesday during a panel discussion at the 16^th annual Lodging Conference taking place at the Arizona Biltmore. “You haven’t seen anything yet,” said Ross in sizing up the current level of distress.

The delinquency rate on CMBS hotel loans 30 days or more past due reached 18.92% in August, up from 6.15% a year earlier, according to real estate analytics firm Trepp LLC. The $13.3 billion in delinquent hotel loans accounts for 21% of all delinquencies across property types. Another $4.4 billion in lodging loans are current but in special servicing.

CMBS servicers, who can extend, modify or liquidate securitized loans, have been reluctant to take write-downs, pointed out Ross. That’s partly because in many instances the special servicers own the non-investment-grade, or lower-rated pieces of the bonds. As such, they would be the first to take a loss in the event of a loan default.