Economist Todd Buchholz kicked off the eighth annual Americas Lodging Investment Summit this week with a surprising and bold prediction during his keynote address: The economy will turn around “in time for the back-to-school sales.” A day later, Hilton CEO Christopher Nassetta chose fear over hope when asked which is the industry's prevailing attitude during the “Hotel Leaders Outlook: The View from Around the Globe” panel. “There's more uncertainty than ever,” he said. “All socio-economic strata, every industry, every geography are affected. It's a historical destruction of consumer confidence.”

And the eighth annual ALIS event, and first in San Diego, was off and running. An estimated 2,400 attendees, down from almost 3,000 last year in Los Angeles, came to the  new Hilton San Diego Bayfront looking for answers during these uncertain and uneasy times. Predictions ranged from Buchholz's third-quarter recovery to some thinking positive movement would start next year, while many more admitted buckling up for a bumpy ride they didn't expect to end until 2011.

There were more questions than answers; perhaps David Johnson, Aimbridge Hospitality's CEO, summed it up best during a panel discussion on the upper-upscale segment: “(Buchholz) is an optimist, but an economic adviser (in George Bush Sr.'s  administration), so I'm hoping he's smarter than me.” Johnson believed this quarter would be “brutal—worse than fourth quarter 2008,” but he expected 2010 would bring RevPAR growth in the three-to-five percent range.

The Wall Street outlook panel offered less than an optimistic view of the industry and economy at large. “The capital markets are frozen,” said Michael P. Levy, a managing director at Morgan Stanley. “No one knows where this is going,” added Paul Whyte, a managing director at Deutsche Bank. “People are waiting to see where the bottom is.” Transactions and development are virtually stalled as a result.

Most owners, operators and brand executives agreed 2009 was a year to focus on asset management and operations, while trying to stay above water to be in position to ride the wave of success when the cycle inevitably turns. “It's really a business of nickels and dimes right now,” said Mike Depatie, Kimpton's CEO. “How do we do that and maintain our share?” Like many others, he agreed  there would be plenty of opportunities to take advantage. But like only a few others, Depatie has access to the funds to be aggressive. “The biggest question we have is when,” said Depatie, who has over $200 million to spend with Kimpton's acquisition fund. “I get interested in times like this. Maybe you wait until a debt defaults? Or work a deal with a developer and his bank?”

Definitive answers did come in one area: the 2008 ALIS awards. Jackson Hsieh, managing director and global head of real estate, lodging & leisure group, UBS Investment Bank, earned the Jack A. Shaffer Financial Advisor of the Year Award. The 1,594-room, $1-billion Fontainebleau Miami Beach  by Fontainebleau Resorts, LLC. was the development of the year. The purchase of the 726-room Hyatt Regency Century Plaza by Next Century Associates, LLC, a joint venture of Woodbridge Capital Partners and D.E. Shaw Group, from Sunstone Century Star, LLC., and Sunstone Century Star Lessee, Inc., was named the single asset transaction of the year ($366.5 million). Apollo Management and Texas Pacific Group’s acquisition of Harrah’s Entertainment for approximately $28 billion received the merger and acquisition of the year award.

The conference will return to San Diego and the Hilton again next year.