Pegasus Solutions CEO Mike Kistner gave perhaps the best description of the mood at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit: “It’s business-as-usual optimism,” he explained while sitting in the far quieter lobby of the JW Marriott at LA Live Wednesday morning as the conference and crowd dwindled. “It’s not the hopeful or cautious optimism of the last two years. It’s real.”

The industry is optimistic by nature, evidenced by the sometimes-rosy outlooks on display the last three years during lodging’s deepest downturn. This year, though, recovery is well underway and despite some lingering concerns, the vibe was positive, and it did seem real this time.

Even the Industry Real Estate Finance Advisory Council (IREFAC) panel of leading hotel real estate executives most affected by the struggling capital markets expressed more confidence than concern. Mit Shah, CEO of Noble Investment Group, said “there will be deals, but you need patience. Deals are taking longer because they’re more complicated.”

The IREFAC panel at ALIS. Photo by Harriet Lewis Pallette.

Mark Elliott, senior managing director of Hodges Ward Elliott, said transactions in the first half of the year would be slower, but then accelerate as the REITs recover stock prices. He predicted his firm would handle $5 billion in hotel trades this year, matching last year, with $3 billion coming in the second half of 2012.

Majid Mangalji said he expected his Westmont Hospitality Group to find some deals in the U.S. and even Europe, despite the sovereign debt crisis. Neil Shah said he didn’t expect the Hersha Group to be too active on the acquisition front, but he later talked about his company’s interest in an unnamed luxury hotel in Philadelphia (the Rittenhouse) and the reports of a looming acquisition.

Jackson Hsieh, the global head of UBS’s real estate group, said the CMBS market is off to a strong start this year after the collapse in the second half of 2011. He said UBS had already committed to $300 million in hotel loans this year after originating and securitizing $400 million all of last year.

The panel didn’t ignore many concerns still out there. Monty Bennett, the CEO of Ashford Hospitality Trust, said transactions would be tough because REITs would be fairly quiet until stock prices returned. And most other buyers needing leverage would be challenged by the lack of lending. 

Although there wasn’t a brand representative on the panel this year, the brands did get quite an endorsement. The panel almost entirely agreed with Michael Murphy, head of lodging and leisure capital for First Fidelity Companies, who said a strong brand was "vital" to attracting capital to a deal.

The conference returns to LA Live next year from Jan. 22-24.

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