Hits To Industry Keep on Coming

The day-to-day news doesn’t seem to be particularly good for the lodging industry.

At the end of last month, PKF Hospitality Research released a study projecting declining revenues and rates and the first two straight years of declining demand in two decades for the U.S. lodging industry.

On Monday, a Goldman Sachs analyst lowered his 2009 and 2010 estimates for the hotel sector, according to an Associated Press story. “Simply put, the majority of supply will hit the U.S. market just as demand is weakening,” analyst Steven Kent said in the AP report.

Shares of Marriott, IHG, Starwood and Wyndham have all dropped of late, although the entire stock market has declined significantly across almost every industry. IHG fell sharply last week on the heels of Marriott’s profit warning, which predicted at least a three percent drop in North American RevPAR next year. Starwood followed yesterday by reaching its lowest point since 2003 after a 2.9 percent drop. Wyndham declined 6.9 percent Monday, also a likely reaction to Marriott’s warning mixed with its own news of restructuring the company’s timeshare business.

Shares of hotel real estate investment trusts also fell Monday. “We are not recommending any lodging REITs because the leverage in their business models creates significant earnings risk and valuations are not historically compelling,” Citi Investment Research analyst Joshua Attie said in an AP story.


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