While the forecasts coming from Smith Travel Research, PricewaterhouseCoopers and others don't promise a great 2010 for the hotel industry, it's got to be better than the year that's just concluding. I've been covering the hotel business for 35 years, and I've never seen as bad a year as 2009 has been for the industry. Any way you look at it—occupancy, rates, RevPAR, profits, values—we're in the middle of the worst industry downturn in anyone's memory.

The good news is that we get to turn the page on the calendar in a few days and start a fresh, hopefully more optimistic year. It can't get much worse, right? Well, actually it could, but I doubt it will happen. The mood of the U.S. consumer is practically giddy if you compare it to the atmosphere this time last year, when many people, even the so-called experts, thought the U.S. and world economies were primed to crash and burn. We survived that near-death experience, and that thought alone has many people more optimistic—even if their personal circumstances, i.e, job status, retirement accounts, are still not where they'd like them to be.

This shift in crowd psychology could be a good omen for properties with strong leisure components. Most Americans, me and probably you included, are tired of the gloom and doom and are looking for a release. I believe 2010 will be a decent year (especially when compared to '09 and most of '08) for resorts and other properties in leisure destinations. People will find ways to escape, even though trips will change in character. We'll see more weekend travel, more camping (boo!), more visits to relatives (boo again!) and fewer week-long visits to five-star hotels. Still, travelers will be on the road again, and many of them will be checking in to hotels.

Years ago, marketing guru Peter Yesawich declared travel to be an American birthright. It's still true, despite the tough times we've endured in the past 15 months. Of course, hotels will need to be creative in their marketing messages and media to attract travel-hungry, but economically-wary consumers. The key will be to convey messages of real and, more importantly, perceived value. Excess is out; smart shopping is in. Packaging is a must, but so are deals: everything from 20 percent off to free breakfast to stay five nights, get two free. It's important operators resist straight discounting, even though consumers have so many lodging choices they're unlikely to pay rack rates for a long time.

The bad news, of course, is it's a totally different story for business travel, which unfortunately accounts for the lion's share of revenues for many properties. Business travel is one of the first line items companies slash when the economy sours, and regrettably it's one of the last items restored once recovery begins. Most companies choose to hold firm or reduce marketing costs until they feel business is back for good. It may not be a smart strategy, but it's reality.

Even so, some business travel will return next year, and it's likely all forms of travel will increase—albeit at varying speeds—in 2010 and beyond. We're not out of the woods, yet, but it's a safe bet the worst is behind us.