Above everything else, hotel owners and operators should be worried about the rising cost of gasoline, fueled largely by the ongoing unrest in Libya and other oil-producing nations in the Middle East. Last month, alone, crude oil prices jumped 10%, and at the beginning of this month, gas prices in all 50 states were above $3 a gallon with a national average of $3.375. In some regions of the country, gas prices are already flirting with $4 a gallon.

Consumer behavior is largely a function of psychology, and it seems as though $4-a-gallon gasoline is a psychological barrier that can negatively affect consumer behavior. In the summer of 2008, gas prices topped out at $4.11 per gallon nationally, helping touch off the long recession from which some of us have only recently recovered. Rational or not, when gas prices top $4 a gallon, consumers believe since they must spend more on fuel, they’ve got to spend less on other things, like vacations. And, of course, rising oil prices ripple through the entire economy, affecting everything from shipping prices to the cost of air travel.

Of course, the media doesn’t help. A recent lead story in USA Today quoted an oil-industry analyst who said if the geopolitical unrest continues, gasoline could hit $5 a gallon by the peak summer driving season. He didn’t seem to have any facts to back up that guess, but it made for a frightening quote.

The irony is, aside from the psychological effect, $4-a-gallon gas shouldn’t really have an impact on most vacation decisions. Consider this real-life example: My wife Carolyn and I are driving to Tybee Island, GA this summer for vacation with friends. We’ll drive at least 1,600 miles on the trip, and if we average 25 miles per gallon of gas, at $3.50 a gallon we’ll spend $224 on fuel. If gas rises to the $4 psychological threshold, our fuel bill rises to $256, just $32 more and certainly not enough to make a dent in our vacation budget considering what we’ll spend on the condo rental, food, fun and hotel stays on the way to and from our destination.

Some less-rational consumers will cancel their vacation plans. Others will still take their trips but find ways to save in other areas, a prime one being lodging. This scenario could put additional pressure on the hotel industry as it tries to dig its way out of a rate hole that’s plagued the business since the start of the recent downturn. Most owners and operators have been counting on rate growth to power their return to higher profitability in 2011. High gas prices could put a crimp in those plans.

Given the fluidity of the political scenario in the Middle East, it’s important hotel owners and operators plan now for all possible contingencies. Work with your marketing departments, ad and PR agencies and revenue management teams to develop promotions, value-added offers and other ideas to salvage the summer season if gas prices rise to and beyond the $4 barrier