The hotel industry’s current downturn will be deeper and last longer than previously forecast, according to a new report from PKF Hospitality Research. The Atlanta-based research affiliate of PKF Consulting says RevPAR will drop by 13.7 percent this year, and a quarter-over-quarter gain in hotel sales is not expected until the first quarter of 2011.

The RevPAR nosedive will be a function of a 7.8-percent drop in occupancy combined with a 6.4-percent decrease in ADR. The drop in rates, the sharpest decline since the firm began compiling data in 1932, will lead to a 30.1-percent decline in industry profits this year, another benchmark not seen since the 1930s.

The report contained a few glimmers of hope. The forecast calls for the most severe declines in hotel performance to occur in the current quarter and should begin to moderate by mid-year. Beginning in the fourth quarter, RevPAR declines will taper off to single digits, says PKF.

And while PKF Hospitality Research President Mark Woodworth calls the outlook for the lodging industry “grim,” he says “lodging behavior can vary considerably from market to market.” Two of the 50 major markets PKF studies—Minneapolis and Orange County, CA—will begin to see RevPAR recovery in the fourth quarter of ’09 that will extend into next year. And lodging demand is forecast to increase this year in two other cities—San Antonio and Baltimore—although significant increases in supply will prevent boosts in occupancies.

“The darkest hour is just before the dawn, and we expect to see that in 2009,” says Jack Corgel, Cornell University Hotel School professor and a senior advisor to PKF Research. “Subsequently, the rate of decline will begin to moderate, and national RevPAR is forecast to decline just 3.2 percent in 2010, the result of a 0.9-percent drop in occupancy and a 2.3-percent decrease in ADR.”

As a result, while most cities will experience RevPAR declines in 2010, 12 markets in addition to Minneapolis and Orange County will see increases. By 2011 and through 2013, all 50 markets should achieve gains in occupancy, ADR and RevPAR.

(Interestingly, Smith Travel Research’s forecast for this year and next is considerably more rosy. Speaking at this week’s Hunter Hotel Investment Conference in Atlanta, Vice President Jan Freitag gave the firm’s ’09 forecast: occupancy down 3.9 percent; ADR down 2.0 percent; and RevPAR down 5.9 percent. The firm is also calling for increases in all three measurements in 2010. One caveat: while Smith Travel collects data and makes forecasts for the entire U.S. industry, PKF Research’s metrics cover the top 50 lodging markets.)